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Weather trends for winter 2021

La Niña is over, but atmosphere has not yet come.In May, the American Meteorological and Oceanographic Agency (NOAA) said that La Niña, a phenomenon that brought a lot of drought to central and southern Brazil in 2020, had ended. We are now under climate neutrality, without La Niña and also without a La Niña phenomenon. The point is that due to the changes for winter, it seems that the Brazilian atmosphere doesn't know about it yet.


How will winter 2021 be in Brazil?


According to NASA/NOAA forecasts, much of the season will be drier than normal.



Climate trends for the southern region

The southern region, especially Santa Catarina and Paraná, will be affected by the below-average preference, as winter is considered a wet season, responsible for the increase in the level of reservoirs.

In Rio Grande do Sul, there is also a forecast of below average rainfall, but exclusion will be more frequent, especially at the end of the season. Even with the below-average exclusion, winter crops should benefit from the drier climate. Despite the above-average temperature forecast, careful installation data will be with late frost that may appear until the end of August. Last year, a late frost in September decreased in a way that means a productivity of winter crops in Rio Grande do Sul. Taking into account the installation time at this time will be important to avoid late cold ahead.

Furthermore, specifically on the border between Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay, rainfall will be more frequent than last winter, causing reservoirs used for rice irrigation to have a higher level than last year. This may eventually help to increase the installed area for the next harvest.


Climate trends for the Southeast and Midwest

The Southeast and Midwest regions already have a dry winter. And the trend is that it doesn't really rain much in the next few months. This means that crops such as sugarcane, wheat, corn, cotton, coffee and oranges result in their harvests proceeding at an accelerated pace. It is true that corn productivity should be low due to its late installation and prolonged drought in 2021. In addition, it will be exploited as cold waves with potential for frost, despite periods of neutrality the risk of the phenomenon appearing is greater.


Climate trends for the Northeast region

The Northeast region usually has heavy rains on the coast and the forest area, which often reach the wild. Although there is an above-average rainfall forecast, we are registering irregular protection. While Paraíba has high soil moisture, areas of Sergipe are experiencing water deficit. The scenario should not change much during the rainiest season of the year: there is even a forecast of accumulated levels, but there is no guarantee of good distribution.


Climate trends for the North region


Finally, in the North Region, what has been attracting attention is the high level of Amazonian rivers due to heavy rain observed in the summer. In winter, a separation will still be intense over Amapá and Roraima, but much of the North Region is going through its driest period. In Roraima, on the contrary, the middle of the year is the rainiest period, beneficial for the development of rice and maintenance of pastures.



Uma imagem contendo Mapa Descrição gerada automaticamenteGráfico Descrição gerada automaticamente com confiança média




Forecast of standard deviation of protection and temperature in South America in winter 2021 (July-August-September). Source: NASA / NOAA

Developed by Agência Jung
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Referência: 14/05/2021
Produto Último Máxima Mínima Abertura Fechamento %
[CBOT] Arroz 13,42 13,33 -0.22%
[CBOT] Farelo 431,5 423,5 0.00%
[CME Milk Futures] Leite 18,87 18,99 18,87 18,98 18,88 -0.79%
[CBOT] Milho 692,5 718,75 685 717,25 685 -4.73%
[CBOT] Óleo de Soja 68,59 68,41 +0.54%
[CBOT] Soja 1602,5 1625 1620,75 1625 1603,75 -0.53%
[CME Lean Hog Futures] Suínos 111,15 111,575 111,15 111,45 111,15 -0.29%
[CBOT] Trigo 737 730,25 727,25 730,25 727,25 +0.10%
Referência: 13/05/2021
Produto Último Máxima Mínima Abertura Fechamento
[CME Milk Futures] Leite 18,95 19,1 18,94 19,05 19,03
[CBOT] Arroz 13,765 13,36
[CBOT] Farelo 424,7 448 427 448 423,5
[CME Lean Hog Futures] Suínos 111,475 111,925 111,2 111,775 111,475
[CBOT] Soja 1612 1657 1598 1657 1612,25
[CBOT] Milho 729 776,5 709,75 757,5 719
[CBOT] Óleo de Soja 69,05 71,91 70,85 70,85 68,04
[CBOT] Trigo 730 756,5 737 750 726,5
Frequência de atualização: diária